As people scramble to buy their tickets before the Mega Millions drawing Tuesday night, the chances of winning the jackpot continue to dwindle. The Mega Millions jackpot is up to $1.1 billion dollars—the sixth largest jackpot in US history. No one has won the Mega Millions jackpot since April 18.
The odds of winning the Mega Millions jackpot is 1 in 302.6 million, according to the Mega Millions site. While the chances of winning smaller prizes are significantly better, you are far more likely to get struck by lightning, be attacked by a shark or die in a plane crash than to win the $1.1 billion prize.
Nicholas Kapoor, a statistics professor at Fairfield University in Connecticut, beat the odds and purchased a winning Powerball ticket in 2016.
“I always buy a Powerball ticket to show my students how improbable it is to win,” Kapoor told USA TODAY.
But the unexpected happened and Kapoor won $100,000. He assured his students that his case was a one-off “statistical anomaly.”
What are the odds of winning Mega Millions?
Here are five statistically improbable events that are more likely to occur than winning the Mega Millions jackpot:
Getting killed by a shark
- According to recent data from the International Shark Attack File, there is a one in 4.3 million chance of the average person being attacked and killed by a shark. There is 70 times more probability to die by shark attack than to win the Mega Millions.
Dying from a local meteorite
- Tulane University Professor Stephen A. Nelson put the chances of dying by a meteorite, asteroid or comet impact at 1 in 1.6 million. That’s about 187 times more likely than winning this month’s Mega Millions jackpot. Nelson’s research found that the odds of dying from a global meteorite or comet are even better: 1 in 75,000.
Getting struck by lightning
- The most recent data from the National Weather Service found that there’s a one in 1.2 million chance of getting struck by lightning in any given year. Unfortunately, you are 252 times more likely to be struck by lightning in your lifetime than to win the Mega Millions jackpot.
Being dealt a royal flush
- A royal flush is the best hand in poker, consisting of a 10, jack, queen, king, and ace of the same suit. There’s only a 0.00015% chance of being dealt this. But these odds are still better than successfully purchasing the winning Mega Millions ticket.
Being offered a spot at Harvard University
- Harvard admissions accepted less than 2,000 of its 56,937 applicants to the class of 2027, according to The Harvard Gazette. That’s a 3.4% acceptance rate — a lot higher than the likelihood of winning the lottery.
Not all hope is lost! You have a better chance at winning the lottery than getting a perfect NCAA bracket — where the odds sit at 1 in 120.2 billion, according to the NCAA.
How do the Mega Millions work?
The Mega Millions drawings are held every Tuesday and Friday at 11 p.m. ET. You pick five numbers between 1-70 for the white balls and select one number between 1-25 for the yellow Mega Ball. Match all five white balls in any order and pick the correct yellow ball, and you’re a jackpot winner.
What is the largest Mega Millions jackpot ever?
At $1.1 billion, the jackpot for the upcoming Mega Millions drawing would be the fourth-largest jackpot in the lottery’s history. Here’s where the other record-holders stand:
- $1.537 billion from one winning ticket in South Carolina in October 2018.
- $1.348 billion from one winning ticket in Maine in January 2023.
- $1.337 billion from one winning ticket in Illinois in July 2022.
- $1.05 billion from one winning ticket in Michigan in January 2021.
- $656 million from three winning tickets in Illinois, Kansas and Maryland in March 2012.
